While the credit crisis has ravaged the economies of the US and the UK, the EU has largely been spared. First quarter GDP grew at a healthy annualized rate of 2.8%, helped by a whopping 6% expansion in Germany. However, a number of economic indicators now suggest that all is not well on the European front. Business and consumer confidence indexes are trending downward. Manufacturing output is down. So are retail sales. Spain, which benefited the most during the credit boom, is now reaping the greatest losses during the crunch, and could put a drag on the entire Euro-zone. One prominent economist is predicting that the EU economy won’t expand at all in the second quarter.
Unfortunately, the only data point which is trending upwards is inflation. Even though the EU is much more efficient than the US in terms of its use of oil, record oil prices (as well as food prices) are taking their toll. As a result, the European Central Bank cannot (or will not) lower interest rates until price inflation returns to a more palatable level. Accordingly, EU member states are taking matters into their own hands by unveiling economic stimulus plans and tax cuts. As far as the Euro concerned, the ECB’s focus on price stability (at the expense of growth) is not hurting the common currency, although if the economy really tanks, the story could change depending on concurrent circumstances in the US. The Economist reports:
The ECB has a strict remit to keep inflation in check, so rising commodity prices are likely to keep interest rates high, lending further support to the euro.
Read More: The euro-area economy – Too good to last
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