Relatively speaking, the Chinese Yuan has been on a tear, appreciating ~1% in a little more than a month. One has to wonder whether this is a concession by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) that its exchange rate regime is not viable or whether its instead a political sop. The question on ev…
CAD/USD Parity: Reality or Illusion?
In January, the Canadian Dollar (aka Loonie) registered its worst monthly performance since June. Many analysts pointed to this as proof that its run was over, after coming tantalizingly close to parity. Others insisted that the decline was only a temporary correction, a mere squaring of positio…
New Zealand Dollar Rise Threatens Economic Recovery
Having risen nearly 30% against the US Dollar since March, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD or Kiwi) is now close to a 9 1/2 month high. While still far from the record highs of 2008, the currency is already erased a large portion of the losses it racked up since the credit crisis gave way to economi…
Canadian Dollar Slated to Outperform Other Commodity Currencies
In the same vein as Monday’s and Tuesday’s posts (covering the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar, respectively), I’d like to use today’s post to look at another commodity currency – the Canadian Dollar. The Loonie, it turns out, has also benefited from the a recovery in risk appetite and c…
Risk Aversion Hits Australian Dollar
These days, I feel like you could take that title and substitute pretty much any currency for the Australian Dollar. Let’s face it- the EU sovereign debt crisis has hit a number of currencies extremely hard, as investors have fled anything and everything risky, in favor of the US Dollar, Swiss Fra…
New Zealand Dollar Thriving in Obscurity
It’s understandable that forex investors basically ignore New Zealand. Its economy is around 10% the size of its neighbor Australia, its currency is less liquid, and spreads are higher. Given that its performance closely tracks the Australian Dollar, meanwhile, why pay it any attention? To be s…
Pound Surges to 15-Year High
Since 1992, two macroeconomic events had not occurred in Britain: price inflation has no exceeded 3% annually and the British Pound has not surpassed the $2 barrier. Both events were realized today, however, as an early-morning release of economic data indicated inflation in Britain was hov…
Aussie May Have Peaked in 2010
When offering forecasts for 2011, I feel like I can just take the stock phrase “______ is due for a correction” and apply it to one of any number of currencies. But let’s face it: 2009 – 2010 were banner years for commodity currencies and emerging market currencies, as investors shook off the cr…
CAD: Steady as She Goes
The Canadian Dollar was supposed to be one of the “hot” currencies of 2010. Given that it’s now exactly where it started the year, I think it’s safe to say that this isn’t the case. On the one hand, it would seem that the markets are still confused about how much the CAD should be worth, as Adam…
Loonie and Aussie Share Downward Bond
In yesterday’s post (Tide is Turning for the Aussie), I explained how a prevailing sense of uncertainty in the markets has manifested itself in the form of a declining Australian Dollar. With today’s post, I’d like to carry that argument forward to the Canadian Dollar. As it turns out, the f…
Archive for the 'Australian Dollar' Category
Tide is Turning for the Aussie“Australia is about to enter a boom that should last decades…The Australian dollar is unlikely to go back to where it was, and manufacturing will shrink in importance to the economy, perhaps even faster than it has been.” This, according to Martin Parkinson, Treasury…
Pound Stagnates, Lacking Direction
The British Pound has struggled to find direction in 2011. After getting off to a solid start – rising 4% against the US dollar in less than a month - the Pound has since stagnated. At 1.625 GBP/USD, it is now at the same level that it was at five months ago. Given the paltry state of UK fu…
USD Gets Double Kick
Over the last couple months, a raft of positive economic developments has driven the USD steadily to its highest level in months. These developments include GDP data, retail sales data, and housing data have all shown signs of strength after an all-encompassing slump in the first quarter. However, i…
Emerging Market Currencies Still Look Good for the Long-Term
In my previous update on emerging market currencies, I wrote that in the short-term, it’s important not to lump them all together; high-yielding currencies must be distinguished from low-yielding ones. In this post, I’m going to backpedal a bit and argue that over the medium-term and long-term, emer…
Currency Correlations, Part II: Canadian Dollar Begins its Decline
In April, I wrote a post entitled, “Economic Theory Implies Canadian Dollar will Fall,” in which I argued that the currency’s impressive rise was belied by fundamentals. It seems the gods of forex read that post; since then, the Loonie has fallen 3% against the US dollar alone. Based on my r…